The Iran Trap

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0:00Okay, let's start class. So, um let us summarize and review where we are so far in the story. So, um there are three major interest forces that are pushing the United States towards war with Iran. Um the first is the Israel lobby. Remember that the Israel lobby is composed of both Jewish interest as well as Christian interest, right? Uh representing uh the Jewish interest is something called AIPAC. Uh and they have a membership of about 800,000. But they're very wealthy. There are many billionaires in this group. So, this group has financial power. In fact AIPAC is considered the second most powerful lobbying organization in the United States. The first is um the pensioners, okay? There's about 30 million of them. Um and their lobbying organization is the most powerful, but AIPAC is second. But also in the Israel lobby are the Christian Zionists, right? So, for example, the organization uh Christians United for Israel has 7 million people um in its membership. So, together the Christian Zionists and AIPAC um are extremely powerful force in government, and they want a war in the Middle East in order to advance Israel's interests. Also remember that America is now addicted to empire. Because empire represents easy money. All money has to be uh channeled through the US. And so, there are many people in the US who just make basically make their money

2:01by speculating on money, okay? So, for for example, Wall Street. And that has made Wall Street extremely powerful uh right now in US politics. And the third um force is Saudi Arabia. Um remember that in our discussion of Saudi Arabia, we learned that the major conflict in the Middle East is actually not between Israel and Iran, but between Saudi Arabia and Iran. For Israel, Iran is a security threat because it it supports Hezbollah and Hamas. But for Saudi Arabia, um Iran represents a threat to its very existence. Okay? So, Saudi Arabia must resolve the Iran problem soon. Right? Now, how these three forces manifest themselves is uh through Trump, okay? So, basically Trump is their champion. And privately, um there's a man named Jared Kushner, who is Trump's son-in-law. He's married to um Trump's very daughter, um Ivanka Trump, okay? And Char- Jared Kushner happens to be very good friends with both Benjamin Netanyahu, who is the leader of Israel, as well as Mohammed bin Salman, who is the leader of Saudi Arabia. Now, uh Jared Kushner's father, Charles Kushner, was a very prominent uh sponsor of AIPAC. In fact, when Benjamin Netanyahu comes to stay in the United States, he lives with the Kushner family. So one night Benjamin Netanyahu had to stay in Jared Kushner's bedroom and Jared Kushner had to sleep in the in the

4:01basement. Okay, that's how close they are. And Jared Kushner is friendly with MBS, the leader of Saudi Arabia. So for any that when Jared Kushner started a private equity fund Saudi Arabia invested $2 billion. Okay, so for Jared Kushner these three forces are able to exert influence on Trump. As we also discussed it's very likely that Trump will become president of the United States again in November and he will pick Nikki Haley as his VP. And that means that Nikki Haley will be the one in the Trump White House pushing for war against Iran. As we discussed Nikki Haley makes most of her money from the Israel lobby, okay? The anti-Iran lobby. We know from the first Trump administration that these forces are able to exert tremendous influence on Trump, okay? And the evidence is one, Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal that would have secured peace between United States and Iran. Okay, Trump moved the United States Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in Israel which was a major which caused major friction in the Middle East, okay? We also know that Trump ignored the fact that MBS killed a journalist. Okay, so we also know that Trump has been very friendly with Saudi Arabia. We also know that Trump sponsored the Abraham Accords, which is trying to bring peace between Israel and other Arab countries and unite them against Iran, okay? The

6:01last thing that Trump did, which is the most important, is that in January 2020, Trump ordered the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, who who is the leader of the Revolutionary Sorry, who was the leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Okay? So, from all this, we can suspect that a second in a second Trump term, uh war with Iran will be a major priority. Right? So, is this clear so far? All right. Now, we also discussed that, okay, even though there are there are these forces that want war with Iran, ultimately, it is the US military that must implement this war. And if the US military refuses to go to war, then the war can't happen. So, we discussed that unfortunately, the US military is very different from what it was 30 years ago, okay? 30 years ago, the US military maintained very standard military doctrine, okay? They maintained three very important principles that all militaries must maintain in a time of war. The first is mass forces. Uh B is um avoid encirclement, right? And the third is protect supply lines. Now, the the important idea is that when you fight a war like this, okay, which is traditional warfare, you must have the consent of the public. Okay? Because it is the public that sends soldiers, that provides money, that gives you political support. But, in 2003, the US military changed its military doctrine to one of shock and awe. Okay? And what shock and awe means is that you don't have to follow these

8:01three principles anymore. You can use air supremacy. Um you you also have technological omniscients. And you also have special forces. And this allows you to fight wars cheaply, quickly, and decisively, so that you no longer need public local support for fighting wars. And as we also discussed, this created the idea of hubris in the American military. So, the American military, because of the 2003 uh war in Iraq, are confident that they can win any war, any place, against any enemy. We know that this doctrine is actually not true. And we know because of something called Operation Prosperity Guardian. Okay? So, um a few months ago, the Houthis, which are a rebel group in in Yemen, they started to attack ships in the Red Sea. Okay? Um and a lot of trade goes through the Red Sea. So, the American military dispatched a massive naval force against the Houthis. Were the Americans able to defeat the Houthis? No. They were not. And so, what the what are what are what are the Americans going to do about it? What can they do about the Houthis? What's the What's the solution to this problem? You have these pirates, the Houthis, going around and attacking these uh ships, which is affecting um international commerce, and that's why inflation is such a huge problem right now in the world. So, what are the What's American military going to do about this? What can they do about this? The answer is nothing. Okay? The American military has no solution.

10:01Why? Because they don't have the forces necessary in order to undertake an operation against the Houthis. They have special forces, they have air supremacy, they have technological omniscience satellites, but they don't have infantry. They don't have lots and lots of ships. Therefore, they cannot stop the Houthis. Okay? And what's Winning Point is that Joe Biden has come out and said that, "Yes, we know we are losing the war in the Red Sea, and yes, we know that we cannot stop the Houthis, but we are going to continue on this path." Okay? Does that make sense? This is the idea of hubris. Not knowing your limitations. And when when you are faced with your limitations, you refuse to accept your limitations. Okay? And that's why when the US military is given the order to invade Iran, they'll probably go along with it because they cannot imagine the possibility that they could be defeated in Iraq. Okay? And then, you have the Iran Revolutionary uh Corps. Okay? The Revolutionary Guard. And as we discussed last class, they want war with the United States because um they're very angry about US interference in Iraq, right? So during the Shah regime, which was a brutal police state from 1953 and then 1979, the Americans were the ones who were backing this police state. So there are many who are who are angry about this. They're also um angry about the fact that the US continues to protect protect Israel and Saudi Arabia. Okay? They're also angry about the fact that Trump killed General General

12:01Soleimani, okay? Um and as we discussed, it's possible that uh the Revolutionary Guard Corps killed last week the president of Iran, uh I- Ibrahim Raisi, and all because um he was preventing war. Okay? So they want war with the United States. So you see the map, right? You You see the logic of this. Where there are powerful forces in the United States pushing the United States towards war. You have Trump who has basically agreed in his first term to raise or increase escalation with Iran. Within the Trump White House, there will be Jared Kushner and Nikki Haley to push this war both privately and publicly. The US military um has so much hubris that they think they can win this war, and Iran wants to provoke the United States into into invading it. Okay? The United States and Iran can have many and for so Iran has many many um strategies in order to provoke the United States into war. Okay? Basically, the United States is looking for a reason, and Iran wants to give them a reason. And that's why I think war between the United States and Iran is very likely in the next 2 to 4 years. Okay, any questions so far? Are Are clear about where we are so far? Be be before I I move on. Any questions? Okay. So, now let's talk about the actual war. So, here most of this is speculation, okay? But, um I'm using speculation in order to help us better understand what a war would look like. Okay? So, let's pretend that it's March 2027, okay? And Trump goes on TV. He announces Operation Iranian Freedom.

14:05A full-scale US invasion of Iran. Along with Israel, Saudi Arabia as its main partners, but the United the United Kingdom, UK, will be involved. Australia will be involved. UAE will be involved. Poland will be involved. Okay? So, you have many countries attacking um Iran together. And Trump goes on TV and explains to American public why the United States is fighting this war. Okay? And this is what Trump says. First, he says that for the past year there have been violent protests in Iran. You have religious protests. You have political protests. You have ethnic protests. The Iranian people are sick of the Ayatollah. They are sick of the dictatorship. They want democracy. They want freedom. In response, the Revolutionary Guard are killing thousands of protesters. Iran is on the brink of civil war. Therefore, the United States has an obligation to protect the people of Iran. Okay? The people of Iran are praying for of and democracy, and the United States, the world's greatest democracy, must give them democracy. Okay? So, the first reason is freedom and democracy. Second, US intelligence, along with Israeli intelligence, have discovered that for the past 2 years, Iran has been working very, very hard on developing a nuclear bomb. In fact, Iran is only 1 month away from having three nuclear bombs. So, that New York City, San Francisco, and Los Angeles and Los Angeles could all be destroyed.

16:05Okay? So, to prevent this, we must strike first to stop Iran's nuclear program. Okay? Third, Iranian proxies, the Houthis, Hezbollah, many groups, have been disrupting shipping in the Middle East, in both the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. 40% of the world's oil passes through that region, mainly to East Asia, China, Japan, South Korea. Our global prosperity is at stake. We must go to war to protect these shipping lanes and ensure that the oil goes to China, Japan, and South Korea, so that they can continue their economic prosperity. So, the United States, as the world hegemon, has a responsibility to protect global prosperity. Okay? Fourth, Iran has been launching attacks against our allies, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Hezbollah has been violently attacking Israel, killing dozens of Israelis, innocent Israelis. The Houthis have been attacking Saudi Arabia oil fields, damaging the economy. We have an obligation to protect our allies, our friends in the Middle East, okay? And the last reason is we know for a fact that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is a sponsor of terrorism. Last week in a mall there were gunmen who went and killed 170 people.

18:05Our intelligence says that it was most definitely an Iranian operation. Okay? So, for these five reasons we have decided to invade Iran. But, don't worry. This invasion will be successful because we have a lot of allies. The UK, Israel, Saudi Arabia, all friends will be part of this operation. Our special forces are already in the country looking for their airbases and their missiles. We can knock them out at the beginning of the war. Also, we have been in in contact with Iranian opposition groups. They want to overthrow the regime. And when we help them, they will install democracy in the country. Our American military is the greatest in the world. In 1991, our military defeated Saddam Hussein in 100 100 hours. In 2003, our military defeated Saddam Hussein in only in less than 3 weeks. To prove that we are the greatest in the world, we will defeat Iran in only 2 weeks. So, do not worry. We will be strong in protecting democracy, freedom, and global prosperity. Okay? So, that's what That's what Donald Trump will say to the people of the United States, okay? And of course, you're going to have large-scale protests throughout the country opposing this war. But, most people in the country will support this war. Okay? All right. So, after the speech, the operation is launched.

20:06And on TV, we'll watch this on TV and the internet together on YouTube together, okay? And we'll be so impressed by the power of the US military. Um this is Iran. This is the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia um Israel is here. Red Sea is here. Iraq is here. Okay? So, in the Strait of Hormuz comes the USS Gerald R. Ford. It's a $13 billion supercarrier. Okay? This thing is designed to destroy countries. It is now pro-prowling the Strait of Hormuz to ensure that shipping is safe. America establishes air supremacy very quickly, okay? Meaning that it has complete control over the skies. Nothing can move in the skies without America detection. Okay? And then a massive invasion force is sent to Iran in the south. 100,000 US troops land. Maybe 200,000 Saudi Arabia troops land, okay? Maybe you have 300,000 to half a million troops in Iraq. And they are about to strike Tehran in the north, okay? So in the south, the United States and its allies have established a foothold. They have a huge presence in the country and they're about to attack Tehran, okay? All right. You understand what what what what has happened? Okay. Now I'm going to ask you this question. At this point, I think the war has been decided. Who has won the war?

22:07America has has established air supremacy. It controls the skies. US Navy controls the seas. You have 100,000 US troops in country ready to strike Tehran. The war has been decided. Who has won the war? Okay. Obviously, this is a trick question. Obviously, Iran has won the war. Why? Why? What's the problem with this plan, okay? This is typical American doctrine, shock and awe. This is how they fight wars. But there's a problem with this plan. What is it? Why would the Iranians want this? Maybe like when they're occupying the south, no one wants Okay, let's go back to traditional military doctrine, okay? In traditional military doctrine, you have three principles, right? Mass forces, avoid encirclement, protect supply lines, okay? These are the three three things you must absolutely obey if you want to win the war, okay? So, using traditional military doctrine, explain to me why United States has lost the war right now. Exactly. First of all, they're encircled, okay? Do you know why? Because Iran are all mountains. It's a fortress. Okay? Meaning that to get these troops into the country, you have to air drop them. Right? But guys, once you're in the country, you can't get them out of the country. You understand? Okay, so that's the first problem. They've been encircled. Right? What's the second problem? They can't actually

24:07go north. Why not? Like it's too heavily defended because of all the mountains. That's right. And what else? And like it's very hard to move like tanks and equipment through mountains. Yeah, that's that's right, okay? So, they failed to mass forces, okay? Iran is a population of 90 million people. You will need at least three to four million soldiers to even think about conquering the country. They've got 100,000 in this country, okay? And as Jack says, you can't move tanks through mountains. They're not designed for mountain warfare. What are they going to do? Okay? So, they can't mass forces, and they can't and they've been encircled, and and what else is a problem? And this is the biggest problem. Exactly. They cannot be resupplied, okay? They have no supply lines. For them to be resupplied, airplanes have to drop ammunition, food into the country. But again, Iran is all mountains. So, it's very easy for Iranians to shoot down the airplanes. Does that make sense? When you pass through mountains, you can't see what's on the ground. A guy, a random guy with a rocket launcher, can just shoot down the helicopter, okay? Which is what the what the Afghans did against the Soviets in the Afghanistan war. And that's why they the Soviets lost the war. A drone can take down any airplanes, okay? So, in other words, these guys are trapped. They you think they're soldiers, but they're not. What they really are hostages. Okay? Does that make sense? You have too many people in the country, so you can't get them out of the country, but you don't have enough people to actually launch a strike against Tehran. You can't resupply them. And they've been encircled by Iranian forces. All right? Does that make sense?

26:09Okay? Okay. Now, the logic of having 100,000 US troops in the country is that once you're in the country, all the resistance to the regime will rise up and strike against Tehran. The Iranian army will muti- will mutiny against the country. Okay? That's the hope. Why do we think this won't happen? Why won't the Iranians revolt against their government? Why don't they want to revolt? That's right. Okay, so Iranians hate Americans, okay? Remember that Iranians remember the Shah. From 1953 and until 1979, the Shah, the American-supported Shah, was running a a brutal police state. So brutal that everyone in Iran revolted against the regime, okay? That's number one. What What Why else would the Iranians not support the Americans? Why? That's the first reason. Iran has a bad history with America. Why else? Guys, which country is next door? What happened in Iraq? America destroyed Iraq, right? From 2003 until 2011, America was there destroying the country. America said that it would bring freedom freedom democracy. It would bring prosperity. It would bring wealth. But instead, it just destroyed the country. American soldiers were running into houses every night, pointing guns at children, destroying homes, and arresting men for no reason, okay?

28:09Iranians saw all this on TV. They heard about all this from neighbors, okay? So they know that if America comes, it's to destroy the country, not to bring freedom democracy, not to bring prosperity, it's to destroy the country. That's why they're going to fight. Okay? Um and another reason is that Iranians think that they belong to a great civilization. So they value their freedom and independence, okay? Does that make sense? They're not going to submit to a foreign conqueror. So um why else would the Iranians resist? Okay. Also, religion, right? The Iranians are religious. They believe that um key that say America is Satan, and they have a duty, a religious obligation, to fight Satan, okay? So, for many reasons, there's just no way that Iranian people are going to stand with America. You might have a minority, but most are going to are going to resist. Okay? Okay, so does that make sense? Okay, any questions so far? And why do the Americans think that they will rise up then? Okay, so uh that's a great question. Why would the Americans think that the Iranian people will rise up? And the answer is that they need to justify the invasion. Does that make sense? They they have to have a logical explanation for why this invasion will succeed. Because one of the criticisms against them will be like, "You need 4 million people to invade Iran. You don't have 4 million soldiers. They have at most 1 million soldiers, okay? Total throughout the world." Um they have about 60,000 in the Middle East. So, they can't get a million soldiers. So, the only explanation is, "Okay, well, we're going to pretend that once

30:09we invade, the people of Iran will support us." Do you understand? So, it's not based on truth, but but it's it's a explanation for why the the invasion will succeed. Does that make sense? Yeah, but the doubt was like, what they tell the public, but do they actually believe Oh, you know, that's a great question, okay? So, that's their propaganda, but do they actually believe this? And the answer is um hubris, okay? They do believe this, because they have hubris. And and again, um it's hard because we're not in the position. But once you're in that position where you have access to nuclear weapons, when you can kill anyone in the world, when you can see everything in the world, um it makes you think you're God. Okay? And we we we Remember like last semester we were reading the Greeks. And the Greeks believe the worst thing is hubris. Because it makes you think you're God, but you're not God. And you you're going to get into a lot of trouble if you think you're God, okay? Okay. Does that make sense? Okay. All right. Any more questions? Okay. So, um Trump says that Iran is 1 month from developing a nuclear bomb, right? America's been saying this for the past 10 years. Okay? You just You just Google this. And America's like, "Oh, Iran is only 1 month away from a nuclear bomb." They've been saying this for the past 10 years. So, do you understand? When Trump gives a speech, there's actually no evidence that any of this is true, okay? But this is how he he'll explain the invasion. Okay? All right. And chances are that even if Iran uh possessed a nuclear bomb, they won't use it. Why not? That gives America a reason to use its

32:10bomb. That's right. Um the the reality is that there's only one way that America can win this war against Iran, okay? They can just nuke the country. And America will do that if if it has enough if if it has a pretext. Okay? So, nuclear weapons is something that Iran is very afraid of. Okay? So, does it make sense? All right. So, this becomes So, American soldiers are trapped in this country. Okay? So, now the question then is Wait a minute here. Why would America do something so stupid as send 100,000 soldiers into the country for no reason and get them trapped? Okay? So, that's a question. And what I want to do now is make you the argument that um there are two ways that we can prove or provide evidence that this is true, okay? The first is historical analysis. Historical analysis means that are there historical examples like this? Okay? Are there historical analogs? If there are, then this could be true, okay? The second uh method is through game theory analysis. Why would the actors who are rational do something as stupid as trap 100,000 American soldiers in Iraq? All right? So, we'll first do historical analysis to find historical analogs, examples that are similar similar to this. And then we'll look at game theory to to try to reason out the motivation of the actors. Okay? So, let's first look at game theory. Oh, sorry sorry. Let's first look at historical analysis, okay? So, the year is 415 BC, okay? In Athens. We remember that we studied Thucydides,

34:11the Peloponnesian War, last semester, okay? So, so so we're we will now discuss the Peloponnesian War. The war is for The year is 415 BCE, and for the past um 17 years, Athens have been fighting a brutal war against Sparta, okay? It's a stalemate. And then for whatever reason, um a man named Alcibiades Alcibiades, okay? has a suggestion. Okay, and this suggestion is to win the war against Sparta, let's go invade Sicily. And uh Nicias, his opponent, is like, "Why the hell would we want to invade Sicily? It's far away." And Alcibiades is like, "Well, because it has a lot of money. If we invade the country, we can take their money." Okay? And it turned out, by making this argument, the people of Athens really support this argument, okay? They Because the When the reason why is war was costing them a lot of money. And they become addicted to the easy money of empire, okay? So, they want to fight this war. So, Nicias has this great idea of how to convince people not to go to war. Okay? And what he says to the people is, "Okay, guys, I know you want to fight this war. I know I know you want to I know that you think this war is a good idea, but Sicily is a huge place. It has a navy. Therefore, we need a massive expedition force against Syracuse in Sicily, okay? We need at least 5,000 soldiers. That's a lot, okay? Because their total Athenian population is about 50,000 people, okay? 5,000 soldiers is a lot is a lot for Athens. And we need about 100 ships. And the idea is Nicias is trying to scare people into not agreeing to not fight, okay? That's the idea.

36:11The Athenians say, "That's a great idea. Let's send a massive force against Sicily and Syracuse, so the war can be can be won just like that, okay? Shock and awe." So, they So the problem though is that never before in his history has Athens sent a large expedition force against another power. Okay, does that make sense? When the Persians that invaded, they were invading Athens. Athens didn't go and invade Persia. So when you have sent a massive expedition force against another country, what is your number one problem? What is the thing that you must resolve? But the Athenians didn't really think about it because they had actually no experience in fighting a foreign war. Okay. Uh so yeah, so the other the enemy knows the terrain better than you do, okay? But there's actually a much bigger problem than that. And it is what? Okay, the biggest problem is resupply. And this is something that the Athenians didn't think about because they never thought They they they never fought a war like this before, okay? So they sent this huge expedition against Sicily. And Syracuse, um which was a naval power, were surprised because they were like, "Why would the Athenians want to invade us?" Okay? So for the first year, the Athenians were destroying uh the Syracuse army. And the Syracuse army had to retreat back into their city, okay? And so the Athenians laid siege to the city. Okay, the Athenians Syracuse is here, the Athenians are here. And the Athenians control the sea, right? Okay? So this situation is very similar to this situation, okay? Do you

38:11understand? But then what happened was that the Athenians couldn't resupply themselves. And the reason why is Syracuse had also had a navy, and they could stop the Athenian navy from resupplying the Athenian troops. And therefore, the Athenian army was wiped out in Sicily. And this caused the Athenians to ultimately lose the war against Sparta and it caused the Athenian empire to collapse. Okay? Do you understand? And again, historians have been trying to figure out for a long time why the Athenians would do such a stupid thing as send as send such a huge army against Syracuse. Because the risk of failure was catastrophic. Okay? And the only answer is, well, the Athenians had hubris, okay? They never really lost a war and they had become addicted to empire. Which is the same situation America finds itself in today. Okay? Does that make sense, guys? All right? So, this has happened before in history. When the Athenians invaded Sicily and lost to Syracuse. Their entire army was wiped out in Syracuse. Okay? Because they couldn't resupply their army. Does that make sense? All right. The second example we can look at is the Vietnam War. So, in in the beginning of 1960, okay? The beginning of the decade, most Americans have never heard of a country called Vietnam. Okay? Most Americans didn't know what it was, they didn't know where it was, okay? By the end of the decade, in 1969, half a million American soldiers were in the country. Destroying everything, okay? But also

40:11getting destroyed themselves. 58,000 US soldiers died in Vietnam. So, the question then is how this happened? Why would this happen? 1960, Vietnam was a distant country no one has ever heard of. By By the end of the decade, half a million US soldiers were in country fighting this war against an enemy they really didn't know, okay? In 1971, um the Pentagon Papers came out. The Pentagon Papers uh was a history of America's involvement in the Vietnam War dating back to 1950s, okay? And it made three major points. The first point is that American leadership, military leadership has been expanding the war in Vietnam without public knowledge, okay? This is what we call mission creep. So, maybe at first they sent some observers to the country, then they sent some advisers and trainers, then soldiers, okay? So, mission creep. Slowly over time, um things escalate. And you don't really understand why things escalate, but they do, okay? Second point is that American leadership from very early on knew the war was unwinnable. This was the greatest military in the world. They dropped more bombs in Vietnam in the '60s than all bombs were dropped in World War II, okay? And they could not win the war. The reason why is to win a war, you have to solve three problems, okay? Okay, the first problem is clear strategy, okay? What are you trying to accomplish

42:11in this country? What are your clear military objectives, okay? Second is you must adapt to the battlefield. Okay? Because all your best plans will change over the course of the battle, okay? So, the the the adversary that is most willing to adapt to the battlefield will win, okay? The third thing is the will to fight. So, if you want to look at a war and who's most likely to win the war, you ask these three questions. One, does this guy have clear military objectives that everyone understands? Because that will determine strategy, okay? Second is is this guy adapting to the battlefield? The third is is this guy um does does this guy still have the will to fight? If If the answer is yes all three questions, then the person will most likely win the war. Okay? And if you look at the Vietnam War, even though America was killing a lot of people, it killed 3 million Vietnamese during the course of the war, it was not destroying the enemy's will to fight. In fact, it was making them angrier. And therefore, more people people willing to fight the Americans. Okay? So, from a very So, very early on, the American political leadership knew the war could not be won. So, then the question then is why did America stay in the war? And the answer is credibility. Okay? Credibility just means they didn't want to lose face. They didn't want to be laughed at by the Chinese and by the Soviets and by the Europeans, okay? But, there's actually another uh way to understand credibility. And it's it's what I call the sunk cost fallacy. Okay? Have you guys heard of a sunk cost

44:12fallacy? And the idea is never ever go into a casino. The reason why is that when you go to casino you start losing money. At some point you cannot leave the casino. Why not? You feel like you've lost so much so now you have to make it back. Exactly. You want to You want to reclaim the money you've lost, okay? You've invested so much that you cannot leave. You have to get that money back. And that's the problem with war. Eventually, you've invested so much you cannot leave the war. And that's what happened in Vietnam. America invested so much it can't It didn't want to leave the war because it did not want to admit that all this um has been lost. Okay? It's what we call the sunk cost fallacy. And that's why even though America could not win the war, it still want to fight the war. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? So, the Vietnam war is another example okay, that is similar to to this. Where America invest enough soldiers that it refuses to leave the war and admit defeat, okay? Does that make sense, guys? All right. Now, let's look at one more example. And this is the most recent example and it's the Russian-Ukraine war. Now, as you know, in February 2022, Putin ordered a special military operation against Ukraine. Okay? And uh this is Ukraine. And Russia attacked from three axes, okay? The north to take Kiev, the capital. You have the east to take Donetsk. And then you have the south from Crimea from uh Crimea to take the south, okay? And as we know, uh the north failed, okay? The north attack failed

46:14and the Russian had to turn back. But the east and the south was successful, okay? Now, let's think about this. You have an extremely powerful military attacking your country, the Ukraine. If you were the Ukrainian president, if you were the Ukrainian military, there's really only one way you can fight this war and win. And what is it? Using traditional military doctrine. What how much you fight this war? You guys know? Let's go back to mass forces, avoiding circle men, protect supply lines. How much you fight this war? There's only one way you you you can fight this war. To me? How do you destroy supply lines? There's only one way you can fight this war and win. And what is it? The The enemy's attacking you, right? So, what what must you do? Okay. The answer is you must retreat. Okay? Why? The enemy's attacking, right? So, you pull back your forces. Why would you do that? What's the logic of that? Because then they have longer supply lines. Exactly, okay? It's it's that simple, okay? You want to overextend your enemy. Ukraine is a huge country, right? And and Russia didn't send send that that that many soldiers. Maybe 160,000. That's not that many soldiers. So, if you just give them a space, they're going to outrun the supply lines, okay? And then when they outrun their supply lines, you can encircle them and you can disrupt their supply. And that's the only way you can win the war, okay? What did the Ukrainians do instead? That's the only way to win this war, but what did they what did the Ukrainians do instead which made them lose the war? Yeah. So, the Ukrainians refused to give

48:14up give up space, okay? They refused to give up land. They want to fight the Russians for every inch of territory. And eventually, because the Russians had more forces, mass forces, they were able to push push through, okay? So, that's the first major mistake that Ukraine made. But then, last summer, Ukraine launched something called a counteroffensive, right? So, once Russia was able to take space, it did it because and because Russia is a land army, it started to develop to develop um fortifications, defenses, okay? Mainly artillery. And that's three lines of defenses. And in the summer offensive, the Ukrainian military, for whatever reason, sent tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of soldiers against their this artillery, and the Russians they blew every everyone up, okay? Now, here's a question. Why are the Ukrainians doing this? They've lost the war now, right? They have no more soldiers. Right now, the average age of the Ukrainian army is about it's over 40 years old. They have guys in their 60s and 70s fighting in the military. They don't have enough manpower. The war is lost. Why would the Ukrainians do do this? First of all, why would they fight for every inch of territory, and why would they launch a counteroffensive against a superior enemy a superior enemy? What's the problem? Okay, the first is the president Zelensky The guy is a TV actor. Okay? Which means that he doesn't think strategy. He just thinks what looks good on TV. So, for the first 2 years of the war, we're watching this on TV, right? And it looked as though the Ukrainians were going to win this war. Right?

50:14It I remember like 2 years ago, people were saying that the Ukrainians are going to march to Moscow and overthrow Putin. People were saying that. Okay? And the reason why is that Zelensky is a master of public image manipulation, okay? He was distorting reality for people through television. The problem with that though is it's not reality, guys, okay? Reality The reality on the ground is very different from TV. Okay? So, who else is like Zelensky in this world? Trump is exactly like uh Zelensky, okay? Do you understand? Trump is also concerned about what looks good on TV. He's like, "I must look strong. We must look as though we're winning this war." He doesn't really care about strategy, okay? So, because of this, it's very likely that he orders a land invasion of Iran because it would look good on TV. Okay? So, the problem with Zelensky is he cared about what looked good as opposed to actually what actually worked, okay? But you also have other problems like you have extremists in the Ukrainian military, okay? And guys, uh these extremists, they're Nazis. They're neo-Nazis. And so, um the traditional understanding of neo- of Nazis are people who killed Jews, okay? But the Russians don't understand Nazis that way because because remember Germany and and the Soviet Union fought a fought this war. So, the Russians understood Nazis to be enemies of Russia who want to kill Russians. And there were many neo-Nazis in Ukraine. They hate Russia. They want to kill as many Russians as possible. Okay? And they're they're the ones who

52:14are pushing for as much war as possible. Okay? So, you have these extremists in the Ukrainian military. Okay? The last reason is NATO. So, it's an open secret that NATO is helping the Ukrainian Ukrainian military against Russia. You have NATO military advisers advising strategy against Russia. Okay? So, it's most likely that the summer offensive last uh last summer was a NATO plan and not a Ukrainian plan. It's possible. We also know that NATO special forces are in the country directing missile strikes against Russian forces, okay? Which means what? If if this is true and if um Ukraine loses the war, meaning that it doesn't have enough soldiers to continue to fight this war, what will NATO do? Send their own Yeah. Yeah, I mean, according to what happened to Vietnam War and uh the Athenians uh expedition against Sicily, it is most likely that the most likely outcome will be that NATO sends its own troops against Russia. Okay? So, Macron of France have said that we are we want to send French soldiers and the British um prime minister has said that he's considering conscription for British people. Okay? Which means that young British uh citizens will be drafted into the army to fight Russia. All right? So, these are three historical examples that are very similar to what could happen in Iran. Okay? Does that make sense, guys? All right. Any questions be be before I continue.

54:19All right. I- Is this clear so far? All right. Now, let's use another mode of analysis called game theory analysis, okay? And this is what I've been teaching you uh this uh semester. And the idea is that society, what happens in the real world, is a game among human beings. Okay? So, you So, each person is trying to play this game as to optimize the outcome for that person. Okay? So, the question then is why would the United States send 100,000 troops into Iran? So, let's look at the individual motivations of the individual players, okay? So, you have the United States. What does the United States want to do? What What What What does it want to do? By By doing what? And accomplishing what? It wants to topple the regime in in Tehran, right? And you can only do that through a ground invasion, okay? So, the United States is trying to topple Iran. But then you also have other actors, okay? So, um Iran. What does Iran want to do? What what what does Iran want to do? Or the basically the Revolutionary Guard Corps, what do they want to do? To kill me? They want to kill as many Americans as possible, okay? Do you understand? They want to force an American land invasion. Okay? So, Iran wants to force a US invasion knowing that if the US invades, it has to lose the war, okay? It will lose the war. Because the Revolutionary Guard can just send suicide bombers against the United States, okay? Now, let's look at Israel. Okay? We know that the United States

56:19wants to topple Iran. We know that Iran wants to force a US invasion to defeat the the the Americans, to humiliate the Americans, and and um exact revenge for what happened in the past, okay? What does Israel want to do? What is is Israel's ultimate outcome? Do you guys know? If you were Israel, what do you want to happen? To defeat like all the proxies Or Okay. So, you you want you want Iran defeated, okay? And then what do you want to happen? You want Iran defeated, you want the proxies defeated, and then what what what do you want to happen? Do you want the United States to stay in the Middle East? What happens if the United States What happens if the United States and Iran both lose the war? You know, Iran is destroyed as a country, the United States is destroyed as a military presence in the Middle East. What would happen? Israel becomes the top dog in the Middle East. Do you understand? Okay? Israel can now control the entire Middle East. So, the optimal outcome for Israel is Iran and the United States are both destroyed. Okay? Do you understand? How about How about Sa- Saudi Arabia? What is their optimal optimal outcome? Exactly the same as Israel. Exactly. Do you understand? Yeah? Which will leave the Middle East to Saudi Arabia and Israel, but Israel is a far superior military than Saudi Arabia. Okay? Remember Sa- like it's very easy to blow up Saudi Arabia. They have oil fields, okay? Not that hot Not that easy to blow up um Israel. So, Israel becomes the top dog. Do you understand game theory?

58:19In other words, all the major participants want an invasion of Iraq. Okay? But, they want different outcomes. And Saudi Arabia and Israel most benefit if this situation happens, where you have 100,000 US troops in the country and they can't get out, okay? Because it becomes sunk cost fallacy. The United States can only pour in more soldiers. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. So, is this clear to you guys? Okay? You can either use historical analysis to get to this outcome, but you can also use game theory to get to this outcome. Any questions so far? Okay, great. Okay. So, Celine asked the most pivotal question, okay? The United States has nuclear weapons, which is its ultimate trump card, right? So, what Trump can say to Tehran is like 500,000 troops in country. You have to let them go or I will nuke you. Okay? Do you understand? Trump Trump can say that. Listen, I'm Trump. I'm Donald Trump. I need to look strong. I have 100,000 troops in the country. I can't get them out of the country. So, he says to Tehran, you either let them go, okay? You either get to guarantee them self safe passage out of country or I will nuke you. Right? So, that's what that that's what will happen. That is what Donald Trump will do. Once the situation arises, the only way for Donald Trump to save face is to threaten Tehran and says, you either let my my guys go or I will nuke the entire country. Right? So, how does Tehran get out of the situation?

60:19How do the Iranians protect themselves against this possibility? Because as because you're actually right. This is exactly what will happen if this situation will arise. Trump will respond with nuclear weapons or the threat of nuclear weapons. So, what must the Iranians do to protect to protect themselves against this possibility? Who who can help the the Iranians now? Russia. Okay, do you understand? So, before this war happens, Iran and Russia must come to an agreement where Putin says from the out from from the onset, no one is allowed to use nuclear weapons. Okay? If Iran new uses uses nuclear weapons, I will nuke Iran. If the United States uses uses nuclear weapons, I will nuke the United States. If Israel uses uses nuclear weapons, I will nuke Israel, okay? Putin if Putin says that, how will the world react? If Putin says this, you are not allowed to use nuclear weapons, how will the world react? He's a hero, right? He saved humanity. But because he says this, the United States is now trapped. Okay? You understand? And so this becomes a black hole for the United States, where they can only send in more troops. They can't get any troops out, they can only send in more troops. What's the problem with this? What's the problem with sending in more troops? No, there's a there's actually a huge problem with with with with this idea of sending more troops. What what is it? Okay, you can't like no one wants to go fight, you understand? The military cannot recruit soldiers. All right? But even if you if you did did have enough troops, as Jack says, you can't resupply them. Why? Why can't you actually resupply your army? Why not?

62:20But there's a bigger problem than the supply lines. What is it? What do you need to create bullets and ammunition? America has no manufacturing capacity because America moved all its manufacturing capacity to China. Okay? Remember this. So for every one ship that America can build, China can build 232 ships. That's what the Pentagon says. Okay, do you understand? So if this war were if this war were to happen, there's actually no way America can win this war. It's just completely trapped inside Iraq. And once it becomes trapped, sunk cost fallacy comes into play, and America just puts in all its resources into the country, but it's a black hole, okay? It cannot use nuclear weapons because Putin has said from the onset, you are not allowed to use nuclear weapons. All right? But now the question then is, why would Putin do that, right? Why would Putin involve himself in this war? And that's what we'll discuss next class. All right? How Putin sees this war and how Putin will react in this war. Okay? But um before we end, are there any questions ab- about any of this? Does Does this make sense to you guys? Is this clear? Any questions? Like is it possible for the United States to invade uh Iran to Iraq? Like if they send their armies to the Oh, that's a great question, yeah. Um so the the problem with Iraq is that Iraq is an independent country. Do you understand? There are 10,000 American soldiers in Iraq. Um so you would need to you would need

64:20their their permission. Even if you had their permission, there's a problem problem here because there are lots of Shia militiamen in Iraq who are loyal to Iraq, okay? And they would see the American invasion force as something as a opportunity to attack the Americans, okay? Because they're still angry about the Americans for what happened in Iraq. But even if they could have a staging area in Iraq, they still they still have to deal with mountains, okay? Do you understand? All right? I mean, the problem is you have 100,000 troops in the country. You have to get out of the country, okay? And it's very hard to get get them out of the country. If you go through the mountains, you're going to get this you're going to get ambushed in the mountains. If you go through the air, those drones are going to strike you down. Th- That's that's the issue, okay? All right? Th- Th- Does that make sense? Okay. Any more questions? Okay, great. So, uh on Friday we'll talk about Putin, okay?